Restrictions are usually triggered once dam levels fall … The Northern Tablelands LLS region has remained relatively stable since the last SSU, however the area of Intense Drought has expanded around the Tenterfield region.The North Coast LLS region continues to show isolated signs of recovery, particularly around Ballina and Coffs Harbour, however the Combined Drought Indicator shows that the areas in the Drought Affected category are currently intensifying.The monthly NDVI anomaly data (Figure 19) indicates that the North West, Northern Tablelands and North Coast LLS regions have experienced a deterioration in average conditions since the December State Seasonal Update and the entire area is experiencing below average levels of greenness. Many other towns had just one to two years worth of water, a problem that this drought has exposed, he says.If you'd like some expert background on an issue or a news event, drop us a line atPeter Hannam writes on environment issues for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.How bad is this drought and is it caused by climate change? The outlook shows that Western Australia, parts of the Northern Territory, the southern area of South Australia and a majority of eastern Queensland are likely to be drier than average over the next three months. And, as plants also help moderate the local climate through a process called evapotranspiration, when they die another hand brake on the heat is removed.The dried-out Southern Macquarie Marshes nature reserve in August. Victoria hasn't declared drought, but says central and east Gippsland and Millewa in the north-west are its main dry regions. That's "clearly the lowest on record", says David Jones, manager of climate services at the weather bureau.Record heat has compounded the stress.
Given high summer evaporation rates and low levels of rainfall infiltration, soil moisture remains below average and these areas remain in the Drought Affected category.The monthly NDVI anomaly data (Figure 22) indicates that the regions have experienced a deterioration in conditions since the December State Seasonal Update and the entire area is experiencing well below average levels of greenness. "By June 2018, they reported that all types of trees were dying, leaving a desert-like landscape of sand dunes replacing the normally vegetated scene," the paper says.As plants dry or die,the risk of major bushfires increases. NSW has been in drought since mid 2017, with dam levels have been falling at an average of 0.04% per week over the past two years. ISSN 2202-1795 (Online). This continues to reinforce that farmers and communities are still managing issues beyond the poor agronomic conditions, with water reserves remaining critically low.Official climate forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology show that the three month rainfall outlook for February to April indicates a near equal chance of wetter or drier than average conditions across NSW. "That’s never happened in the instrumental record," says Michael Roderick, a climate researcher at the Australian National University.
Positive SAM in summer tends to promote synoptic rainfall across southern Australia.Much of the information in the Seasonal Conditions Report is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS) ™. Alpine regions experienced slightly cooler mean overnight temperatures.The monthly NDVI anomaly data (Figure 5) indicates that the majority of NSW continues to be experiencing lower than normal levels of greenness. A large area in the Intense Drought category now spans from Cooma to Jindabyne, and east towards Bombala.The monthly NDVI anomaly data (Figure 25) indicates that the South East LLS region has experienced a deterioration in average conditions since the December State Seasonal Update. To report local conditions use Rainfall was well below average across much of New South Wales, particularly in the northeast and southern inland regions of the state. Given the high rainfall intensities and compromised infiltration rates much of this rainfall was not effective for soil water recharge and pasture response.Extreme heat was also experienced across NSW in January with 90% of the state experiencing its warmest January in history.
As Professor Roderick says, the Millennium Drought had really only two very dry years – 2002 and 2006 – but is considered to have lasted about a decade. Or, as the Unlike other extreme weather events such as heavy rain or heatwaves, though, droughts are tricky to measure. Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled slightly though remain warmer than average. There are small isolated areas that are experiencing average to slightly above average levels of greenness, which reflects areas that were showing strong recovery last month. Average overnight temperatures ranged from 15°C in the southeast to 30°C in the northwest, with anomalies of up to 6°C above average. Meteorologists monitor the extent and severity of drought in terms of rainfall deficiencies. However the strength of this greenness has deteriorated during January.Conditions across the South East Local Land Services (LLS) region have generally remained stable since the December State Seasonal Update (SSU), except for an area in the south of the region where there has been an expansion in the Intense Drought category. Is this the new normal? It should be noted that outlooks at this time of the season (spanning Autumn) tend to have a lower accuracy than at other times of the year.The 30-day SOI value as of 3 February was positive (30 day value is +0.7, 90 day value is +3.8) but is in the range that is considered neutral.Cloud levels at the junction of the equator and the International Date Line have fluctuated around average during over the past few months, however has tended to be above average during December and January.
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